Wednesday, June 07, 2006

The show must go on. And so, it will.

The NBA Finals are set to tip-off tomorrow night in Dallas.

Two teams, Dallas and Miami, with two very different yet compelling story lines.

Dallas entered the season with high hopes, as they have for the past four years. The difference this year was the “Mad Scientist” Avery Johnson and All-World Dirk Nowitzki. Oh yeah, and that dude I’ve been hyping since his sophomore season, Josh Howard. It’s an unconventional three-headed monster – especially considering that one of the three heads I’m referring to is a coach. Beyond this trio, Dallas as a team shows great depth and versatility. Consider how they reached the NBA Finals: beating San Antonio, perhaps the most conventional team in the Western Conference, and then by beating Phoenix, the most un-conventional team in the Western Conference.

So is it really a surprise that Dallas is favored by 3 points tomorrow night at home? Not really . . . actually, not at all. And remember, they did take down the defending champions. And they did it in Game 7 on the road. That’s tough.

Let’s look at the team on the opposite side of the ball, the Miami Heat.

It was a roller-coaster season to say the least. I don’t like what happened to Stan Van Gundy (does anyone?), I didn’t agree with the addition of Antoine Walker for fear that it would take the ball out of both Wade and Shaq’s hands, and I didn’t think Riley was going to be able to make the difference he undoubtedly has made. I love both Wade and Shaq, and although I picked the Cavs to beat them in the Eastern Conference Finals, as soon as the Spurs fell, it seemed like the Heat caught fire. It seemed like they were on a mission, really believing that no one had a shot at the title beyond themselves.

So is this attitude founded or unfounded?

My answer: founded.

It’s obvious that the Heat play a much different style of basketball then the Mavs do, perhaps more methodical, even more boring. But with a playmaker like Dwayne Wade and an absolute monster in Shaquille O’Neal, I just don’t see how they can lose to the Mavericks. And yes, I do know that the Mavericks have home-court advantage and are 2-0 against them this season.

Here’s the thing with this match-up, all things considered, it might be one of the most unpredictable Finals match-ups in NBA history. Neither team has won a title; neither team has reached the Finals. Both coaches have rings, one as a player (Avery), and the other as a coach with the Showtime Lakers (Riley).

It was a virtual draw in my mind until today.

And then this is what I decided:

1. Miami has an edge with Finals experience (Shaq, GP, Riley)
2. Miami can run two above-average defenders at Dirk to slow down his scoring – Haslem and Posey
3. Yes, Dirk can create his own shots now, but I don’t think coming in the lane is as good of an option as it was against the Suns considering the Heat have Shaq (and/or Zo) protecting the rim
4. Josh Howard might do a good job on Dwayne Wade, but he still hasn’t guarded anyone as good as him in these playoffs
5. Dwayne Wade, if he ends up guarding Howard, will do a better defensive job on Howard then any player has done on him so far this post-season
6. The difference will be Shaq dominating the paint, and Wade penetrating, dishing, scoring and getting to the foul line (basically making virtually all the plays on offense, whether he's shooting or not)
7. The Heat’s supporting cast is playing to their potential right now, and finally . . .
8. One team has one superstar, and the other team has two superstars

My prediction: The Miami Heat over the Dallas Mavericks in 7 games

I can't wait.

It's going to be an interesting series and hopefully a great one.

Cheers.

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